12-Month Projected Revenue
$3.0M
Range: $2.6M – $3.5M
Month 1 Viewtime Share
9.6%
Mar 2026 · 492K hours
Guild Tickets Sold
7.0M
3rd largest theatrical-to-guild launch
Revenue Front-Loaded
52%
Earned in first quarter (Mar–May)
Executive Summary
Solo Mio launched on Angel's Guild streaming platform in March 2026, concurrent with its
theatrical run (Feb 5 – Apr 30), and opened to 9.62% of total guild subscriber viewtime —
the third-largest opening month by absolute hours in the platform's history,
behind only David (Feb 2026) and Homestead (Feb 2025).
With 7.0M guild tickets sold, Solo Mio outperformed every comparable-ticket-count title at
launch. Sketch (9.4M tickets) and Senior (6.9M tickets) peaked at 7.1% and 5.7% respectively
on a platform half the current size. Solo Mio is tracking closer to King of Kings (11.5% peak)
than to its ticket-count peers — a meaningful signal of strong content-market fit.
Applying a $200K-per-1%-viewtime-per-quarter revenue model, we project
approximately $3.0M in Guild revenue over 12 months
(March 2026 – February 2027), with 52% concentrated in Q1. The primary risk to the upside is
May 2026: if the post-theatrical platform marketing push drives a retention spike, Q1 revenue
could reach $1.65M. The December 2026 holiday season also presents a secondary lift opportunity,
given Solo Mio's musical content profile.
Outperforming ticket peers
7M tickets → 9.6% viewtime share. Truth & Treason had 8.3M tickets but only 2.6% at peak. Solo Mio is performing at 3.7× that rate on a larger platform.
Concurrent theatrical model works
Guild access launched mid-theatrical (not at end). Viewtime held at 75% month-over-month vs a 58% average for comparable titles — slower decay than the norm.
Holiday tailwind likely
Every comparable title saw a December viewtime bump (+15–40% vs prior month). Solo Mio's musical content profile may strengthen this seasonal effect.
Monthly Viewtime Share — 12-Month Projection
% of Total Guild Subscriber Viewtime
Month-by-Month Projection
| Month |
Calendar |
Viewtime % |
Range |
Notes |
| 1 |
Mar 2026 |
9.6%actual |
— |
Guild launch, concurrent with theatrical |
| 2 |
Apr 2026 |
7.2%actual* |
— |
Partial (through Apr 20); theatrical still running |
| 3 |
May 2026 |
6.5% |
5.5 – 8.0% |
Post-theatrical; modest hold as access broadens |
| 4 |
Jun 2026 |
4.0% |
3.0 – 5.0% |
Natural decay begins |
| 5 |
Jul 2026 |
3.0% |
2.5 – 4.0% |
Settling into long-tail |
| 6 |
Aug 2026 |
2.5% |
1.8 – 3.0% |
Stable |
| 7 |
Sep 2026 |
2.0% |
1.5 – 2.5% |
Low season |
| 8 |
Oct 2026 |
2.0% |
1.5 – 2.5% |
Fall platform pickup |
| 9 |
Nov 2026 |
2.1% |
1.8 – 2.5% |
Pre-holiday build |
| 10 |
Dec 2026 |
2.5% |
2.0 – 3.5% |
Holiday boost — musical content |
| 11 |
Jan 2027 |
1.8% |
1.3 – 2.3% |
Post-holiday normalization |
| 12 |
Feb 2027 |
1.5% |
1.0 – 2.0% |
Stable long-tail |
* April figure annualized from 20-day partial; theatrical ends April 30.
Quarterly Revenue Projection
Revenue at $200K per 1% Viewtime per Quarter
| Quarter |
Months |
Avg Viewtime % |
Conservative |
Base Case |
Optimistic |
| Q1 |
Mar – May 2026 |
7.77% |
$1,490K |
$1,553K |
$1,654K |
| Q2 |
Jun – Aug 2026 |
3.17% |
$487K |
$633K |
$800K |
| Q3 |
Sep – Nov 2026 |
2.03% |
$320K |
$407K |
$500K |
| Q4 |
Dec 2026 – Feb 2027 |
1.93% |
$287K |
$387K |
$520K |
| Total |
Mar 2026 – Feb 2027 |
— |
$2,584K |
$2,980K |
$3,474K |
Comparable Theatrical Releases — Historical Viewtime Share
| Title |
Tickets |
M0 Peak |
M+1 |
M+2 |
M+3 |
M+4 |
M+5 |
M+6 |
M+11 |
| Solo Mio |
7.0M |
9.6% |
7.2%* |
— projected → |
| King of Kings |
19.2M |
11.5% |
4.8% |
3.8% |
4.4% |
4.0% |
3.5% |
5.1% |
2.2% |
| Last Rodeo |
11.3M |
16.8% |
8.4% |
5.8% |
3.8% |
3.6% |
2.4% |
2.9% |
— |
| Bonhoeffer |
0.5M |
12.9% |
10.9% |
4.3% |
3.2% |
3.1% |
2.1% |
1.2% |
0.7% |
| Sketch |
9.4M |
7.1% |
3.4% |
1.8% |
0.9% |
0.8% |
0.8% |
0.7% |
— |
| Senior |
6.9M |
5.7% |
3.8% |
0.9% |
0.7% |
0.6% |
0.4% |
0.3% |
— |
| Homestead |
4.5M |
23.6% |
14.9% |
10.8% |
8.7% |
6.4% |
6.0% |
4.9% |
4.1% |
| Truth & Treason |
8.3M |
2.6% |
1.5% |
0.6% |
0.4% |
0.5% |
— |
— |
— |
Assumptions & Risks
Key assumptions
- Revenue model: $200K per 1% of quarterly guild subscriber viewtime, applied to the average monthly % across each quarter.
- Platform total viewtime assumed to grow modestly from current ~5.1M hours/month; declining % share could represent stable or growing absolute hours.
- December 2026 seasonal boost modeled conservatively at +25% vs surrounding months — historical range is +15–40%.
- May 2026 modeled as modest hold (~6.5%) rather than a large theatrical-end spike, because guild demand has been building for 2 months already.
- David (currently at 10–16% share) will compress available share for all other titles through mid-2026.
- No directly comparable musical/operatic film exists in catalog; seasonal musical affinity is uncertain.